March 2026
How Do Stocks Perform After Major Events?
From time to time, we are asked about historic stock market returns after major world events. During times of geopolitical strife, stocks typically show resilience after such events, with short-term volatility from stock market shocks often proving to be short-lived.
According to historical data from the S&P 500® stock market index (dating back to WWII), here is how stocks typically perform following a major geopolitical shock:
Timeframe Average Performance Recovery Status
1 Day -1.1% Initial “Shock” Reaction
3 Months +0.3% to +2% Typically flat; still "digesting" the news
6 Months +2.6% to +5% Back to long-term historical averages
12 Months +5.5% to 10% Fully recovered and trending higher
Taking a look at look at how the S&P 500® performed after some of the most significant "shocks" in modern history, here are a few:
Pearl Harbor (1941)
3 Months: -12.4%
12 Months: +0.4% (back to baseline)
9/11 Terrorist Attacks (2001)
3 Months: +2.5%
12 Months: -16.7%(during the “Dotcom” bubble burst, showing that the underlying economy matters more than the actual event)
Russia-Ukraine Invasion (2022)
3 Months: -13.0%
12 Months: -11.0% (a choppy recovery due to high inflation)
COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)
3 Months: -19.6% (the US stock market was down over 10% during the last week of February, 2020)
6 Months: +15.0%
12 Months: +66.0% (aggressive stimulus-driven rebound)
Markets generally do not like uncertainty. Once there is clarity on current events, the market typically “prices it in” as it starts to look towards future earnings.
Past performance does not guarantee future results
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